DSWV warns Germany could lose €400m in World Cup betting to black market

Germany could see €300m-€400m in World Cup 2026 betting turnover move to unlicensed operators, according to the Deutscher Sportwettenverband (DSWV), which says the tournament will test whether the regulated market can keep major-event demand inside licensed channels.

The association expects total German betting turnover on the tournament to reach roughly €1bn. Of that amount, DSWV forecasts that around €600m-€700m will be staked with licensed operators, leaving a further €300m-€400m at risk of being placed outside the regulated market.

Mathias Dahms, President of DSWV, said major football tournaments often provide the sports betting sector with the equivalent of an additional revenue month. He added that betting volumes tend to rise further when Germany’s national team remains in the tournament.

DSWV linked the black-market risk to Germany’s restrictive betting framework, pointing to the 5.3% stake tax, the €1,000 monthly deposit limit and restrictions on live betting markets. The association argues that these rules leave licensed sportsbooks with a narrower offer during periods of high demand, while offshore rivals can provide broader betting options.

The warning is balanced by recent research cited by Germany’s regulator, the Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL). A GGL-commissioned black-market study by Blockchain Research Lab put online gambling channelisation at 77.03%, with the unregulated segment accounting for 22.97% of activity. The figures indicate that licensed online gambling still represents the majority of the market, although the unregulated share remains significant.

The issue comes into focus as Germany prepares its evaluation of GlüStV 2021, with a summary report due by December 31, 2026. The World Cup forecast gives DSWV a fresh case for revisiting product restrictions, tax pressure and channelisation before the review is completed.